How to make good decisions with probabilistic thinking

We all have to make decisions all the time and usually do not know all the facts. I checked out directly Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke.

Have an engaging time that will help you move forward.

I’m always interested in learning how to make good decisions. After all, optimizing our lives has a lot to do with the quality of our decisions. The better decisions we make, the more likely we are to reach our full potential.

In that regard, I recently read Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. I was interested in the book because I have noticed that many leaders use “thinking in bets” when making decisions. A clear example is Bill Gates. This is what I wrote in A Key Factor to Living Life to the Fullest:

I learned about this “making bets” concept from watching a 2007 interview with Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. In the interview, Gates repeatedly used the term “our bet,” “we bet,” and the like to explain the history of Microsoft.

For instance, Bill Gates and Paul Allen started Microsoft based on a bet that the microcomputer would become huge. They also bet that software would become a key part of the upcoming microcomputer revolution. That’s why they named their new company Microsoft.

While they may use different terms, I have found that many leaders have a similar way of thinking. They use probabilistic thinking instead of deterministic thinking. They realize that there are factors outside of their control.

Here are some lessons on decision making that I learned from the book.

1. Decision quality is different from outcome quality.
2. Beware of hindsight bias.
3. Good decisions maximize your probability of getting good outcomes.
4. Think of the possibilities and then the probabilities of each.
5. Think long-term.

The full article you can read here.

Missing some details? Please visit the linked source to see the complete original article. What is your impression? Did the content make you think? Then I would be pleased to receive your opinion in the form of a feedback or comment. There are so many exciting things to discover.

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You are what you do — day after day after day.“

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